Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
